Thursday, 23 January 2014

Egypt issue on Blue Nile can only be solved through interest based negotiation



The current leadership of Egypt should learn from their predecessor -Sadat- and apply the same principle on the issue over Nile water (Specifically Blue Nile water-what Ethiopians name it Abay).

The ambitious Nasser put his country to war until his successor- Anwar El Sadat- returned back to negotiation table with Israel that ended with The Camp David Peace Accords. When the negotiations started, the sides’ positions were completely opposed to each other. Egypt insisted on complete sovereignty over the Sinai Peninsula (which Israel had occupied in the 1967 6-day war), while Israel insisted on keeping control of at least some of the Sinai. "Looking to their interests instead of their positions made it possible to develop a solution. Israel’s interest lay in security; they did not want Egyptian tanks poised on their border ready to roll across at any time. Egypt’s interest lay in sovereignty; the Sinai had been part of Egypt since the time of the Pharaohs." (Fisher and Ury, 1981, p. 41). By reframing the issues in this way, a solution was reached. Egypt was given full sovereignty over the Sinai, but large portions of the area were demilitarized, which assured Israel’s security at the same time.

The current political leaders of Egypt position on Nile water include: “We have the legal right not only to use but also to administer Nile water- referring the colonial agreements”; “Upper stream countries should get the consent of Egypt before implementing any project on Nile”; “No dam on Blue Nile”; “Ethiopia will stop her Dam construction if she does not get money from international sources. Egypt will use diverse means including its legal right to convince financial institutions/donors. This strategy will force poor Ethiopia to suspend the construction of her Blue Nile Dam”, etc, etc,……

The people of Ethiopia and its leaders position are completely different: “The colonial period agreement cannot be enforced in Ethiopia. Egypt signed agreement with British not with Ethiopia.”; “We started the development dam construction by considering the worst scenario of not getting resources from loan/grant from external sources. Egypt might have built her dam-Aswan- with external support. People of Ethiopia and its government are committed to build their dam by their own resources- all people started buying bond and giving donation since the fair use of Blue Nile for their development was their longtime dream. Egypt politician calculation that assumes Ethiopians as poor and do not have the capacity to use Blue Nile for development is wrong. Ethiopians have long term experience of collaborating for their national interest including performing big projects. Ethiopia-a sovereign country even during the colonial era- is not giving permission to Egypt in the 21 century to monitor its development initiatives ”

The interest of the people of Ethiopia and its government is clear, legal, principle centered, and based on the win-win option- Ethiopia would like to develop without harming other nations including Sudan and Egypt. Ethiopians are not selfish and have no interest to discontinue the follow of river Blue Nile to the downstream countries. Ethiopians believe in fair use of Blue Nile water for the development of Ethiopia, Egypt and Sudan. They believe that this is possible. Hence, politicians of Egypt should learn from Sadat and think about negotiating over their interests. Reflecting their positions will not lead to win-win solution, and Egypt should know that this will never suspend projects over Blue Nile.